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港媒:中国应与德国联盟将美国赶走 协调对俄政策

2014-08-04 10:24:47   环球网

【环球军事报道】香港亚洲时报在线8月1日文章,原题:欧亚需要中德联盟

马航MH17坠落事件给乌克兰冲突蒙上黑色阴影。这场悲剧使俄罗斯总统普京的国际处境更加艰难。在经过几个月对乌克兰亲俄力量的支持和国内民族主义宣传之后,他现在不能退缩。

此事也增添了德国与中国更好协调对俄政策的必要性。两国都警惕侵略性的俄罗斯,但更加担心孤立或分裂俄罗斯。中德在俄罗斯问题上的协作,无论是现实还是理论,都远比普京的乌克兰困境更重要。事实上,在乌克兰上演的不仅仅是简单的内部冲突,还有几乎被遗忘几十年的欧亚政治的强势回归。

德国总理默克尔访问北京出现了新动向。德中之间的经贸关系已经非常强,或许对两国都是理想的伙伴关系,但没有一丝的政治因素。

今天,俄罗斯-乌克兰危机为德中利益交汇创造了一种不同的空间。在能源供应问题上,莫斯科对于挑拨中欧关系有着客观的利益。柏林和北京现在有志于在欧亚能源的广泛议程上密切协作,以避免不受莫斯科的摆弄。

这种地缘政治利益的交汇将有增无减,其基础是非常强劲的商贸利益以及陆地交通线(包括从北京到柏林的特快铁路线)。这可能造成欧亚大陆的新动态。但基本上,其在欧亚内部创造的经济和政治关系,将推动所有其他国家围绕柏林-北京联盟而转。

这就是说,就德中牢固的经济和政治关系而言,像韩国法国(或不少其他国家)等国可能会发现,向柏林-北京联盟看齐而非寻求替代性关系,在客观上是便宜之事,而替代性关系可能在客观上更复杂和昂贵。

这在便宜的意义上有效,虽然许多较弱的国家如波兰或哈萨克斯坦,可能希望在联盟之外划出自己的空间。这种转变要行之有效,需要两端巨大的谨慎,不可强势而为,以避免引起联盟歪曲。

这种新现实事实上会导致美国被逐出欧亚。美国对此的反应可能有:试图破坏这种新的联盟,煽动革命和制造麻烦;或者支持它,从而更加深入这个空间。组建对这个联盟的反对阵线,或许会强化德中关系,最终导致美国被逐出欧亚。不客气地说,在我看来,对美国更有利的选择是努力顺应这个趋势,而不是对抗它。▲(作者郗士,汪析译)

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