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台学者:太平岛对台湾形同鸡肋 何不卖给大陆

2014-05-27 14:23:29   环球网

资料图:中国南沙太平岛全景航拍图。

新加坡联合早报27日文章,作者是台湾中国科技大学助理教授包淳亮,原题《台湾何不卖掉太平岛?》,全文摘编如下:

越南近日发生反华暴动,众多台商受灾,台湾一些“独派”人士趁火打劫,宣称“台湾人应趁此进一步与中国切割”。其实不少人已经指出,越南人“就是打你台湾人”,因为台商在越南的形象实颇堪疑。此外,越南也认为台湾“非法”佔领了南沙群岛的太平岛。其实太平岛与一般台湾百姓并无多少利害关系,也许是台湾“吃老本”,把太平岛卖给大陆的时候了。

为什么台湾要考虑这个可能性?最近,台湾才决定停建核四,让“国有企业”台湾电力公司新增3000亿到4000亿新台币的不良资产,此外各级政府也早已存在着数万亿的负债。倘若可以较好的价格,例如1000亿或者甚至1万亿元新台币让出太平岛,则所得庞大现金,可以大幅改善台湾的财政体质,加速实现“无核岛”之类的梦想,堪称捨弃不良资产以换取更有效益资产。

对台湾来说,太平岛确实是一个“不良资产”。太平岛是南沙最大岛屿,台湾为驻扎太平岛的守军,每年支付数亿维持费用,期望有一天可以在此划设经济水域来开采石油等等。但是“中华民国”是在约70年前还管辖着中国大陆时占有太平岛,而今却仅“管辖”台湾,很可能永远不会拥有让太平岛成为“金鸡母”的“外交军事实力”,反而时时得警惕越南等的侵扰,且于今已成为台商在越南受害的原因之一。卖掉太平岛不仅可能获取大量现金,也让台湾就此摆脱南沙的国际冲突。

对台湾形同鸡肋的太平岛,于中国大陆却绝不一般。台湾只有将太平岛转卖才有将之变现的可能,但大陆却可以借由拥有这个岛屿,在南沙获得极大的存在合法性,驻军并进行专属经济海域的划设与开发,将之“变现”。

事情当然不会是容易的,美国可能最先不赞成,因为这可能带来南中国海地缘政治的变化,也可能反映台湾“外交立场”的调整。问题在于,台湾不可能把这个小岛卖给美国或其他国家,因为大家都知道南沙群岛是个是非之地,何况两岸关系又如此纠葛。此外,美国或其他国家也出不了好价钱。只有卖给年度财政预算已达70多万亿新台币、并且多次表示愿意支持台湾“财政”的中国大陆,才能有个稍微像样的收益。

面对现实,台湾当局手上的“活钱”其实仅是年度财政预算约2万亿元的极小部分,要实现台湾民众建立无核化并永续发展的能源体系,同时改善城乡景观,提升人民福利,在在需要大量的金钱。台湾的这些梦想,是不是可以借由割捨鸡肋来实现呢?

进一步言,把一个除了军队没有其他台湾人的“土地资产”有偿转让给大陆,是对曾经守土的“国军”的礼赞而非背叛。不仅他们的守土终于有了“代价”,而非仅是基于历史的无所谓而为,且“中华民国主权”也并无损失,只不过是“管辖权”从一个政府转移到另一个政府。

从这个角度出发,则若价钱合理,也不妨思考转让东沙岛与钓鱼岛“管辖权”给大陆的可能性。东沙岛具有极高的地缘政治价值,且因为拥有专属经济海域,已成为两岸合作开采油气的基础,尚非不良资产;而钓鱼岛则只是名义上受台湾当局管辖,转让管辖权似乎买空卖空,不过台湾也得承受与日本关系生变的机会成本。

因此,提出两岸之间转让所管辖领土,不仅质问了大陆究竟愿意为了台湾改变自己的既定外交立场,提出多少的对价,也质问了台湾民众,究竟为了表现出坚定的对抗中国大陆,愿意牺牲多少的机会成本?在东海与南中国海冲突消息不断的此刻,这种更加直率的利害计算,也许反而将贡献于世界的和平。

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